| While various civilizations and cultures around the world | | | | opportunities on the underdog. Profits shown are |
| have been engaged in some form of betting for more | | | | based on 10/11 odds with a $110 wager to win back |
| than 3000 years, the point spread, or 'betting line', is a | | | | $100 on each game. Fav Situation #1: Favourites that |
| relatively new invention and has only been in use for | | | | increase in the final hour before GT. Record since |
| the better part of 70 years. Its impact in this relatively | | | | 2001: 100-83 ATS (+$870) 15-21 ATS in '06. (Closing |
| short period of time is undeniable and as an un-named | | | | line used for grading). A late increase in the line from |
| bookie quoted in a 1951 book by sports journalist | | | | the value posted 1 hour before game time signifies a |
| Charles Rosen put it: The spread has easily been 'the | | | | good play on the favourite. This situation suffered in '06 |
| greatest discovery since the Zipper'. Without question, | | | | as favourites generally took a beating overall, but it has |
| it has had a huge part to play in today's popularity of | | | | still shown a decent profit over the past 6 years. Fav |
| one sport in particular--the game of American football. | | | | Situation #2: Favourites that are at least 1 point bigger |
| While most certainly an American invention, the true | | | | @ 1/2 hour before GT than they were on |
| origin of the point spread is cloudy. Some experts | | | | Wednesday evening. Record since 2001: 107-85 ATS |
| believe it was introduced in the 1920's while others | | | | (+$1,350) 16-18 ATS in '06. (Line 1/2 hour before GT |
| claim it wasn't widely used until the 1930's in the New | | | | used for grading). Favourites that rise between |
| York area. Regardless of its actual birth-date, this | | | | Wednesday evening and a 1/2 hour before game time |
| much is known--In the years following the 2nd world | | | | have been very profitable, except for last season. The |
| war, the point spread became the dominant form of | | | | line must increase by at least 1 whole point for this |
| wagering for both American football and basketball. It | | | | situation to be effective. Fav Situation #3: Favourites |
| was a bookies dream, helping to make the underdog | | | | of exactly 3 points on Wednesday that increase to at |
| much more attractive and assuring sports books and | | | | least 3.5 points @ 1/2 hour before GT. Record since |
| bookies a 10% profit on the 'vigorish' shaved off the | | | | 2001: 26-20 ATS (+$400) 5-9 ATS in '06. (Line 1/2 hour |
| top of winning bets. Originally set in the early days by a | | | | before GT used for grading). Field-goal spreads are |
| consulting firm out of Minneapolis run by Leo Hirschfield, | | | | usually not prone to fluctuations; however, when it |
| spreads are now more of a consensus originated by | | | | does happen, the favourite is a decent bet as long as |
| managers from sports books inside Vegas' casino's, | | | | the move is an increase. This situation also took a |
| as well as offshore establishments. For the purposes | | | | beating in '06, but, it should be in-line for a rebound in |
| of my research, I have relied on the lines provided by | | | | 2007. Fav Situation #4: Favourites of exactly 7 points |
| the Don Best Sports Information Service, a consensus | | | | on Wednesday that increase to at least 7.5 points @ 1 |
| of roughly 25 sportsbooks (17 offshore and 8 Las | | | | 2 hour before GT. Record since 2001: 15-8 ATS |
| Vegas). For the majority of games, the point spread is | | | | (+$620) 3-1 ATS in '06. (Line 1/2 hour before GT used |
| initially set in the hope that wagers will fall fairly evenly | | | | for grading). As with field-goal spread values, teams |
| on both contestants. Sometimes the bookmakers will | | | | favoured by an even TD @ mid-week do not normally |
| misread public opinion and you may see a 2 or 3 point | | | | move off this number, but, when the line increases, the |
| move in the point spread from early in the week until | | | | favourite has been an excellent wager in the past 6 |
| the close of betting action. In other situations, the | | | | seasons--including 2006. Profits from line movements |
| bookmakers will purposely set a skewed line in an | | | | are not limited to favourites alone. There are also 4 |
| attempt to sucker the public into taking predominately | | | | different strategies available for those that like to place |
| one side--a team that those in the 'know' will stay | | | | their money on the Dog. Dog Situation #1: Underdogs |
| away from. While this might appear to be a risky | | | | that decrease in size during the final hour before GT. |
| position for the sport books to take, having 80-90% of | | | | Record since 2001: 109-80 ATS (+$2,100) 11-9 ATS in |
| action on one side where the line value greatly favours | | | | '06. (Closing line used for grading). Spreads that drop |
| the bookmaker is a good situation for sports books | | | | from the value posted 1 hour prior to game time signify |
| (and individual bookies) to be in over the long-haul. | | | | a good play on the underdog. This situation has been a |
| While the Internet age has certainly helped to sharpen | | | | consistent winner since 2001 and it can occur as many |
| the betting skills of the average bettor by providing an | | | | as 40 times per season. Dog Situation #2: Underdogs |
| abundance of high level handicapping info, a large | | | | of 7 or 7.5 points on Wednesday evening that are a |
| percentage of bettors can still be classed as | | | | bigger underdog 1/2 hour before GT. Record since |
| 'squares'--meaning, they will bet on the well-known | | | | 2001: 25-14 ATS (+$960) 4-1 ATS in '06. (Line 1/2 hour |
| favorites week after week, no matter what the | | | | before GT used for grading). This situation does not |
| circumstances. It's this group of novice and | | | | arrive too often but when it does, it's extremely |
| intermediate bettors that Vegas and the off shore | | | | profitable. This strategy includes moves of only a 1/2 |
| books will prey on over the course of each season. | | | | point, such as a shift from 7 to 7.5, or, 7.5 to 8.0. Dog |
| Evidence of this is shown in the fact that over the | | | | Situation #3: Underdogs that are at least 2 1/2 points |
| past 14 years, a strategy of betting all favourites has | | | | smaller @ 1/2 hour before GT than they were |
| turned a profit in only 2 different years (1998 and | | | | Wednesday evening. Record since 2001: 20-13 ATS |
| 2005) and since 1994, favourites are a dismal | | | | (+$570) 6-3 ATS in '06. (Line 1/2 hour before GT used |
| 1543-1652 (48.3%) against the number. Contrarian | | | | for grading). Underdogs in this situation are typically |
| betting methods have always worked well in the NFL | | | | small dogs of 1-2 points that actually swing over to a |
| and by using services that track where square money | | | | small favourite as game time approaches. Despite the |
| is flowing each week, sharper bettors can put | | | | large loss in line value, they still remain a very good bet |
| themselves in a position to 'cash-in' on sucker lines and | | | | to cover. Dog Situation #4: Big underdogs of >= 12 |
| play against the majority. This is a strategy that works | | | | points on Wednesday that have dropped in size @ 1/2 |
| in most years (1998 and 2005 aside), but, this kind of | | | | hour prior to GT. Record since 2001: 13-9 ATS (+$310) |
| information does not come cheap-services that | | | | 5-3 ATS in '06. (Line 1/2 hour before GT used for |
| analyze and provide bet percentage information can | | | | grading). This situation has seen limited action since |
| charge anywhere from $100-$600 US per month. An | | | | 2001, but, it has shown some promise and I will be |
| alternative to this is to utilize the Internet to obtain 'live' | | | | watching its results closely in 2007. The lesson to be |
| NFL lines which can provide an indication of where the | | | | learned from these situations is that: line moves--late |
| money is flowing on any particular game. A line that is | | | | ones especially--offer a relatively simple (and free) |
| adjusted downwards is usually a reaction to a larger | | | | way to turn a profit each season. The driving force |
| amount of money coming in on the underdog while a | | | | behind these movements could be the result of the |
| spread that creeps up, is a sign that the favourite is | | | | betting actions of a relatively small number of |
| receiving more of the action. By analyzing the timing | | | | 'high-rollers' with inside information, or, perhaps the |
| and size of these moves, I have been able to come | | | | reactions of many smaller bettors placing last-minute |
| up with a total of 8 different betting strategies that are | | | | wagers based on late-breaking injury updates and |
| easy to implement using free line data found on the | | | | changing weather conditions. Regardless of the |
| Web. All of these situations use the line posted | | | | source, no decent handicapper can afford to ignore |
| Wednesday evening at 6pm as the starting point but | | | | the implications that these key changes may have on |
| any stable line listed between Wednesday and Friday | | | | their wagers. |
| evening (for Sunday and Monday games) should work | | | | Dennis Arthur has been providing innovative NFL |
| equally as well. The first group of situations involves | | | | analysis based against the Vegas Point Spread since |
| wagers on favourites while the 2nd covers good | | | | 1999. |